30 апреля 2014 г.

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Moscow, 28th of April – Prospects of the Russian economic growth and the probability of large–scale sanctions against Russia were the main topics for discussion at the annual CFA Russia Association Forecast Dinner. The dinner gathered the leading economists and investment experts, both practitioners and academicians, who shared their forecasts and opinions on the current Russian economic situation.

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Simeon Djankov, the Rector of New Economic School (NES), questioned the probability of implementing large–scale sanctions against Russia. First, according to Djankov, the West understands that it will be extremely difficult to implement effective sanctions against Russia. In recent years, sanctions against such countries as Cuba, Iran and Iraq very rarely met their expectations; Russia, in comparison, is much more integrated to the world economy. Second, Russia is an important export market for Western manufacturers; therefore, the lobbyists from the leading companies will direct their efforts at prevention of large-scale sanctions.

In his speech, the Rector of NES indicated that there are structural issues within the Russian economy. One of the main issues is demographics. The work force in Russia is lacking young employees, and every year one million people leave the labor market. An indirect effect of this trend is a high unemployment rate. Djankov believes that in order to keep the economic growth at least at its minimum level, the country has to stimulate the growth of capital investments, which will help to compensate for the low workforce.  

Nitin Mehta, CFA, the Managing director of CFA Institute for Europe, Middle East and Africa, informed the event attendees of the global forecasts based on the opinion poll of CFA certificates holders around the world. The majority of experts think that in 2014 the world economy will continue to grow. The main positive factor, according to the respondents, is the improvement in the sovereign debt sector. By a significant margin, shares were named the kind of investment that will give the best results in 2014, followed by raw materials and precious metals. According to the majority of respondents, the best investment markets at the moment are the USA and China.

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Oleg Kuzmin, the Economist from «Renaissance Capital» for Russia and CIS, talked about the Russian economy and its prospects with careful optimism. According to his forecast, the GDP growth can reach 1,6% in case of lowering of geopolitical tension in the first half year. Oleg Kuzmin believes that one of the main issues for economic growth in 2013 was the reduction of reserves by the players of the economic market. Taking into consideration the correction cycles in various sectors, the economist thinks that this trend will outrun itself in 2014 and will stop affecting the economic growth. He also believes that consumer demand will not decrease significantly and will remain the main factor of economic growth. At the same time, the shortage in the workforce, especially among highly qualified employees, will continue to affect the labor market. Therefore, Oleg Kuzmin predicts that there will not be any rapid decrease in salary levels. Inflation, according to him, will come down to 5,6% in 2014, compared with 6,5% in 2013.

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Elena Khisamova, the Head of ECM at VTB Capital, spoke about the main challenges for the Russian share market – particularly, she believes, a relatively low transparency of Russian companies, predominance in national indexes of state companies as well as a strong dependence on foreign capital due to underdevelopment of Russian institutional investors, all which affect the Russian share market. At the same time, Khisamova pointed out some positive factors, including the creation of a united regulator of financial markets, an introduction of a central depositary, and an improvement of quality of corporate management in the country. In the next few years, Khisamova believes, the privatization program as well as the development of a pension system will support the share market.

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Roland Nash, the Senior partner and Chief investment strategist from Verno Capital, shared his opinion on the development of the financial market in Russia in the near future. He believes that the state role in the economy will continue to grow and it will affect the competition and effectiveness of capital distribution. The time of excessive profits on the Russian financial market is declining for the majority of its participants, while the investors’ ability to find interesting options for capital placement is moving to the foreground. Therefore, Nash believes there will be high demand for qualified financial experts with a good understanding of the Russian market.

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Michael Germershausen, the Head of Recruitment Agency Antal Russia, also participated in the Forecast Dinner.  He discussed the situation on the labor market in the financial sector. According to opinion polls conducted by his company, more than 80% of employers did not increase employee salaries due to the Ruble devaluation. At the same time, there is no indication of large-scale cuts – 62% of respondents do not plan to decrease the number of staff, and 60% do not plan to freeze the current vacancies.

 








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